Monday, December 15, 2008

askmarkets is a web service for prediction markets

What Company Is Offering:
askmarkets is a web service for prediction markets, which in turn allow you to thrive on the knowledge of the many. Believe it or not, the combined knowledge of people who know a lot about something, people who know a bit about something and people who just want to guess, often provides a more accurate forecast than any expert or group of experts can give.
Prediction markets are mechanisms which tap into the wisdom of crowds and by using the knowledge of you and me, they arrive at predictions which prove to be more correct, more accurate or more reliable than these of the latest forecast or the experts or the Delphi oracle.

How It Works:

Prediction markets work like a stock exchange where instead of company stocks, people trade opinions, your knowledge on a particular question or your personal estimate of how something might work out. The same way the market mechanism of supply and demand determines the value of a particular stock and its market price then also reflects the sum of all the traders' knowledge and information, the judgement of the people participating in a particular prediction market influences the possible answer to the question at hand.

For example, someone might want to know the outcome of the next presidential elections. There are two people up for the job. People who subscribe to this prediction market can now trade stock A "Candidate X is going to be the next president" or stock B "Candidate Y is going to be the next president". And by simply letting people make their educated (or not) guess, share information they might have, or use their knowledge or opinion about what other people might think, the sum of all this wisdom is translated into an accurate prediction about the outcome of the next presidential elections.

More at:

No comments: